by Sid Shah

The Great Chinese Take-out

May 30, 2008 – 12:50 am

Just read an interesting article in this month’s issue of Fast Company.  It is about how China is making a resource-hungry push into the African Sub-Sahara, and why.  You can find the article here.

 I have also just began to read by Faheed Zakaria’s The Post American World, which is not about the demise of of the West, but the “rise of the rest”.  B-rock is reading it too.  You can buy it here.  I wonder if Bush ever read anything by a foreign author, or actually has read anything at all.  Actually, we all know the answer to that question.

barack.jpg 

B-rock please think macro, think long-term, and be a true leader — one that coalesces the country around the right decisions.

by Sid Shah

Life conspires to beat the rebel out of you

May 28, 2008 – 1:32 am

Quote from Alex Bogusky, Co-Chairman and ex- Chief Creative Officer of Crispin Porter + Bogusky (looking at everybody around him and reflecting as he was sitting at a roundtable in a meeting with top Nike executives) -

“Life conspires to beat the rebel out of you.”

This quote put in context perfectly recent thoughts I have reflected on about large organizations, the herd mentality, professional growth, and the effect this has on people and their creativity, originality, spirit, and propensity to take risks. 

by Suneel Gupta

To The Graduating MBA Class of 2008

May 16, 2008 – 2:52 pm

Parting Thoughts

For the past two years the members of our class have accomplished a lot together. We thought through tough problems, traveled around the world, partied mercilessly and, most importantly, challenged each other – in the classroom, in the study room, even at the Keg. As the days we have together grow thin, I want to present the Class of 2008 with a final challenge: Continue to ask yourself the question that brought you to business school in the first place. For me, and I suspect for many of you, that question is what is it that I really want to do with my life?

An honest answer to that question creates a vision that requires four important things from us.

1. Keep an open mind and attitude. Openness took us on a quest to different parts of the world with perfect strangers and brought us to the OLC stage in week one despite limited musical abilities and, in most cases, limited clothing. Just as those times led us to indelible memories, an open attitude towards determining our true goals will lead us to genuine answers.

2. Value dissent. Consider for a moment that annoying group member who consistently challenged every statement anyone ever made…ever. As tempted as you might be to distance yourself from those types of people in your career, I encourage you to bring them closer. Share your goals with them and let them poke holes in your thinking. Filling those holes will only make your plan stronger.

3. Follow through. Not long ago, each of us had the vision to attend a top business school. We took time away from our friends to cram for a standardized test, summarized our lives – past, present, and projected – in the form of essays, and asked senior professionals we respect for a written pat on the back. It paid off. The reality is that our class is full of people who execute on their goals and I implore you to continue that pattern.

4. Be resilient. We are also a class that realizes good things don’t always come easy. Over the past two years, I have heard a lot of words and phrases at Kellogg: Synergy. Bottleneck. Heteroskedasticity. But I rarely heard the words “I can’t” uttered from fellow classmates. Whether it was developing an award-winning business model or strategic plan within a 48-hour case competition, organizing massive charity drives with little to no resources, or developing full-length musical revues that would give Broadway pause, no one ever said I can’t. For the past two years, we pursued our goals with resilience because we understood that the world is full of people who let simple roadblocks deter them from their dreams. And at some point in the past, we resolved that we would never be one of those people. Let’s not forget that.

June 21st will not simply mark the conclusion of something meaningful, but the beginning of something powerful. From that day on, we will hold a degree that opens doors for us around the globe. It won’t, however, guide our careers for us. It won’t challenge us to be open about what we truly want out of life, to value dissent when crafting a plan, to actually put that plan to action, and to stay resilient when things don’t go our way. That is something we need to do for ourselves – every single day.

by Sid Shah

What The Cool Kids Are Doing…….

May 16, 2008 – 2:50 pm

Its called Balance Transfer Arbitrage.  You hedge two seemingly opposite transactions to make a guaranteed profit — that is, zero risk. Balance transfer arbitrage (using low-rate or 0% APR credit cards) requires only a bit of discipline, research to find good card offers, and organizational and planning skills.  You borrow money at a low rate and earn money on it at a higher rate until the introductory low-rate borrowing term has expired.  The best investment vehicles to deposit that ‘borrowed’ money are short term CDs.  People are rumored to be making about 10-15k a year by doing this.  However, they are holding about 100k+ in debt.  So, if you are not extremely organized and methodical, you could get completely screwed. 

Here is an example:

You receive a few 0% APR CC offers and want to earn something from them. Assumptions:  0% APR CC for 12 months; good credit; desired amount: $10,000. American Express Blue is a good example, with no annual fee, up to 15 months 0% APR, 4.99% Fixed APR for life of balance transfer, 12.24% Variable APR for regular use after intro period.

  1. Open a suitable no-fee investment vehicle (i.e. CD) with low minimum balance and no penalties, say at 5%.
  2. Apply for card(s), if they haven’t already sent you something in the mail.
  3. Activate your card with the CSR over the phone. Ask for a balance transfer check.
  4. When the check arrives, assuming you can write it out to yourself, deposit it into your investment account for 11 months.
  5. Withdraw the money from your investment account (keeping a minimum balance if necessary to keep the account open) and pay off the $10,000 credit line. Your interest earned: about $10,000 x (11 m/12 m) x 5% =~ $458 plus a bit of compounding
  6. Now repeat with another card or cards

I don’t think I am going to try this.  I learned early in life there is no such thing as easy money.  But if you have an appetite for it, do your research, keep a log, be methodical, and stay on top of things.

by Sid Shah

The Zen Master: A Story of Humility

May 12, 2008 – 10:46 pm

There’s a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse… and everybody in the village says, “how wonderful. the boy got a horse” And the 

Zen master [says]:  “we’ll see.”

Two years later The boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everybody in the village says, “how terrible.” And the

Zen master [says]:  “We’ll see.”

Then a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight… except the boy can’t cause his legs messed up. and everyone in the village says, “How wonderful.” And the

Zen Master [says]: “We’ll see.”

by Sid Shah

This is just freaky……

May 2, 2008 – 4:01 am

Robot reassembles itself when kicked apart



by Sid Shah

L.A. Times rails on Pacino and DeNiro

April 24, 2008 – 11:53 pm

The L.A. Times just railed on two of Hollywood’s cultural icons.  I have read and re-read the article because I want to find some type of fault in what the author is trying to say.  At the same time I do not want to judge Pacino or DeNiro because I do not know why and how they make their business decisions.  I can say, however, that I have been disappointed by the movies these guys have starred in over the past decade, and have been waiting for them to come out with movies that have the potential of influencing the social behavior of future generations (i.e. the Godfather films, Serpico, GoodFellas, Taxi Driver, Midnight Run, The Devil’s Advocate, and Casino), much like these movies influenced mine.   These guys know the score, hopefully they can get back to their roots for a few more good movies before their careers wind down.

 Here is the article from the L.A. Times - http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-goldstein22apr22,0,6394025.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel

Here is a response from a CAA agent that use to represent DeNiro right after he left CAA and went with Endeavor for representation- http://weblogs.variety.com/thompsononhollywood/2008/04/caa-memo-hits-f.html

 What do you people think? 

1) Have they sold out for money?

2) Were they trying to get out of their mafia stereotype and try different types of films? 

by Sid Shah

Brazilian Footvolley - No hands volleyball

April 2, 2008 – 7:59 pm

I was recently in RIO for a week and was staying out in Ipanema and saw a pretty cool sport. Footvolley was created in Brazil in the mid-1960s with informal rules and became popular in the 1980s — when volleyball was popularized in that country. Footvolley may have started in Rio de Janeiro; but cities like Recife, Salvador, Santos, and Florianopolis have players whom have been playing footvolley since the 1970s.

I am surprised this isn’t more popular internationally, it seems much more difficult than regular volleyball.


Here is some more information on it:
Footvolley Wikipedia
Footvolley Rules

by Shahid Hussain

HBR Case Study on Open Source

April 1, 2008 – 6:36 pm

In this month’s Harvard Business Review, a case study takes a look at how a company tussles with open source. In this post, I shall try to save you the $17 required to buy the magazine and talk about what open source is, why it’s so powerful, and why to be careful with it.

What is Open Source exactly?

If you’re that way inclined, you can read the official definition. Here’s the short version.

  • Open Source is “free as in beer”. This means that you don’t have to pay for it. You may have to cover the cost of distribution - e.g. the cost of getting a CD burned and mailed to you - but most people who are in this century us the internet to distribute software. So, you can go to a website and download a full working version of an operating system, an office suite, a browser, and so on.
  • Open Source is “free as in freedom”. The Open Source movement is full of, and was founded by, lots of suspicious looking bearded people like this one. These folks say that when an open source program is distributed, you must also distribute the source code (hence the name). You also give away the right to modify and redistribute your software, and you keep the right to get props for your code.

The second part of that definition is probably more important. People in Open Source believe that innovation is so important for society that we shouldn’t restrict it in any way by keeping it proprietary. People in business believe that they can innovate, and make money from those ideas.

Both are right. This is the basic conflict inherent with Open Source.

The Open Source case study in HBR

The HBR study illustrates a very simple situation. In a nutshell, a computer game company’s star product, which includes both software and a hardware controller, has become aware of two open source projects which replicate both of these elements.

As is usual in HBR, four experts weigh in with their opinions. Some write adverts for their own companies, some give warnings without a plan, and some answer the problem. I’ll break down the main points for consideration.

The Open Source Community

If you’re getting open source replicas for your product, this should tell you something - there is a reasonable sized community of technology badasses who love your product. You probably know about user communities already, but be aware that user communities are full of segments just like anything else. A basic segmentation might look like this:

  • I just want to play the game, and then leave.
  • I like this game! I’ll chat about it on a web forum.
  • I’ll skin my MySpace page! I might also download a mod for the game to see if I can get more play out of it, or explore hidden areas!
  • I love this thing. I’m going to spend hours tinkering with the hardware or hacking the software just because I can. Maybe another little community will build up around my efforts.

This list is roughly in order, from zero to hero. You need to figure out where your user community lies, and then think about how to engage them. If you have a bunch of open source people all over your product, they will not be satisfied with skins and a user forum. They believe in free, and are willing to pay anything in time and effort to make it so.

Using Open Source

There are a pretty dry set of pros and cons for having an open source user community.

The Good:

  • Faster development: You have access to more developers, so your product development curve can go up sharply. This depends on you being able to bring enough good people to the project. If you have open source copy projects already, you know this is the case.
  • Love: Open Source developers are spending their spare time on the project, and they’re probably seriously geeky. They do it because they love it. This means that it’s likely you’ll be able to create high quality code. This is a fine balance, and depends on the community being managed well, and is also affected by your branding. For example, Apple’s hacking community are phenomenal at what they do, because they love Apple products. Apple don’t clamp down too hard, because they don’t want to sue their biggest fans for the negative network effects.
  • Product Direction: Most Open Source developers become that way simply to scratch an itch of their own. This means that you’re getting the best type of connection between consumer insight and product development, as both are coming from the same person. Isn’t that cool? A caveat - you do nerd to be careful that your developer is writing something that’s generally useful and not too specific.

The Bad:

  • Product Direction: You’re trying to make cash, they’re just having fun. Make sure one doesn’t kill the other. Also, because they’re volunteering their time to code, they can be tough to steer in your direction. Think about why they’re coding - to scratch an itch, or just because they love you?
  • Kissing in the Ear: If your brand isn’t strong enough for them to just code for the love (Apple, Google) then you’ll need to kiss up to them a little. Developer conventions, invitations to visit company people and so on.
  • History: If you have a bad rep, you may have a very tough time convincing people to love you. It’s highly unlikely Microsoft will go big on Open Source for this reason (amongst many others).

The Ugly:

  • Patent trolls: These companies can just be watching for your source to come out and then sue you for infringement on some broad patent they hold. It has happened before, but also some large companies (Sun) have managed to open a lot of code without incident. Solution: make sure you’re lawyered up, prepared to use them, and everyone else knows it.

Models for interaction

So what’s the solution? To the surprise of absolutely noone, the answer is “it depends”. Here are your options.

  • Sue them, and throw resource at keeping your system proprietary and protecting your IP. This is the default choice for many business types. Pros: you’ll be in a stronger position if you ever get into IP litigation with another company or a patent troll. Cons: you’re suing your biggest fans. This should be an absolute last resort.
  • Open up a little way. Cons: you need to ensure your code is modular, and the user created modules are prevented from misbehaving. An example might be allowing VST or AU processing plugins into an audio sequencing application.
  • Open source most of the way, but keep an essential part of your product closed. Google’s a reasonable example of this - the search algorithm is proprietary, but the backend is all running on a customised version of Linux.
  • Open source the whole shebang, and forget completely about getting value from the product. If you’re all open source, everyone and their mother can copy your product, fork the code and compete with you. You can trademark things (e.g. Linux is a trademark) but in terms of functionality, you no longer have a source of advantage there. The only way to make cash here is complementary products or services. IBM supports Linux in a big way, because it’s now a services business. Perhaps a better example is Canonical, the business behind Ubuntu. It gives away an open source operating system, but makes money from support and similar services.

The Special Case of Sysadmins

We’ve talked a lot here about a straight Company -> Consumer B2C chain. What happens if you have a Company -> Expert -> Consumer B2B chain?

Let’s consider an example - network management applications. Let’s say you have a data centre and you want to monitor whether everything is staying online. You can go and buy a monitoring application from someone like Symantec, or you can download something from Open Source - nagios might be a good example.

From the company’s point of view, they just want the data centre to stay online, they don’t care how. They are offering a pile of cash, and they want a solution.

The cool part is considering the expert’s point of view. After all, this is either the purchase decision maker or influencer. If they are skilled up in using a proprietary product, some of that pile of cash will go towards product licensing, and some will go to the expert salary. If they are skilled up in using a free product that’s just as effective, all of that pile of cash will go to the expert salary. The solution is delivered either way.

So that gives experts like sysadmins real incentive to skill up on free or open source products. This is the kind of bet that Sun is making, and the kind of bet Symantec is making against. Time will tell!

by Shahid Hussain

Axel Foley

March 22, 2008 – 11:26 pm

One of the most useful frameworks I’ve learned at Kellogg is Geoffrey Moore’s diffusion framework. One of my favourite people - is Beverly Hill Cop’s Axel Foley. I was delighted to discover that I could combine the two.

Most people in tech have, at some point, flicked through “Crossing the Chasm”. It describes how a new technology can diffuse from a neat technology demo into something people use every day. There are five sets of people involved in making that happen. The first segment persuades the second, the second the third, and so on … and it all starts with an idea. Axel’s idea.

Axel is an innovator.
You have a very big mouth
“You have a very big mouth, sir.”

Axel doesn’t get things done in the usual way. He comes up with new ways of solving problems, and crimes. He has a pretty interesting theory about who killed his friend Michael Tandino, but he needs to convince a whole series of police officers in order to secure a conviction for the killer. The first one to believe him is Billy.

Billy is an Early Adopter.
Running out of ammo
“You know what I keep thinking about?”

Billy is the first of the Beverly Hills Police Department to believe Axel’s theory about Victor Maitland being a drug dealer and smuggler. He doesn’t come up with great ideas himself, but he can see the potential in great ideas when they arrive, and is adept at understanding their implications.

(Usually, an Early Adopter is organised and mercenary about getting deadlines and project plans in place. In this case, Billy is a bit of a scatterbrain.) Next in line is the Captain.

Captain Bogamil is an Early Majority user.
Taggart ... why don't you tell me what happened?
“Taggart … why don’t you tell me what happened?”

This transition is critical. This is what Moore refers to as the “chasm”, because it’s so hard to get Bogamil to accept Axel’s theory. There are two reasons why - Bogamil likes doing things by the book, and sees no reason to change. If there’s cause for a conviction, it should be presented in the same way as usual. Bogamil wants “evolution, not revolution”. Worse - Bogamil’s buddies are all other cops like Bogamil. He doesn’t really listen to what Billy has to say.

Forget what you can prove ... talk to me.
“Forget what you can prove … talk to me.”

So how can Bogamil be convinced? In this scene, Axel suddenly drops his act and starts talking like a police officer. Suddenly, Bogamil can relate to his theory and asks Taggart to look into the problem, not allowing a Detroit detective to solve the crime. His solution is inherently practical, and that’s the key to selling to the Early Majority. They want a practical solution to the problem. At the same time, Bogamil can see the value in Axel’s theory.

Taggart is a Late Majority user.
You're going to pay for this.
“You’re going to pay for this.”

Taggart is not big on theories. He’s practical, sure - but remains a sceptic even at the point where they are invading Maitland’s house and shooting bad guys. He would prefer it if Axel had never arrived in Beverly Hills - but by the last scene, where’s it’s clear that Axel’s theory is the truth, he has accepted the state of affairs. The last scene brings back the Chief.

The Chief is a Laggard.
You expect me to believe that report?
“You expect me to believe that report?”

The Chief is staunchly opposed to Axel and his theories, not even stopping to listen to what he has to say. He will pay a price (ignorance) to avoid Axel’s theory, and in the end has to be lied to in order to avoid acceptance.

From each stage, the previous group is the strongest influencer of the next. Billy knows he will never be able to convince Taggart of anything. At the end, the Chief asks Taggart to tell him what actually happened - as a Laggard, his closest reference is a Late Majority user like Taggart.

I hope this illustrates how the Technology Diffusion framework can be used to write classic 80s films. All we need now is Harold Faltermeyer, and we’re all set.